Coal is dying.
Finance of new development has declined by three quarters over the past three years. Plants are closing. Renewables are growing.
It’s a great lesson in More’s Law and understanding how disruptive technology can change your industry.
Whats More’s Law
More’s Law is a principle that tracks how technology performance doubles every 18 months. The cost of implementation mirrors this doubling – but in the direction of zero.
In other words as renewables performance doubles, the delivery cost moves towards zero.
This means that we will soon be able to deliver the worlds power needs at near zero cost.
The net outcome is a world of abundance as opposed to scarcity.
Kind of blows your mind, doesn’t it?
A New Economic Principle
More’s Law is creating a new economic principle that is driving disruption. It will redefine how economics work and how we need to run our businesses.
It changes the way that we solve problems.
Your industry/business solves problems in a way that was built on old technology (coal). If you do not embrace a new way of using technology (renewables), you will become irrelevant.
The Recursive Strategy
The best way to understand this is to take the problem you are solving and intersect this with the exponential technologies.
Once here, you need to think about how this problem can be solved in 5 to 10 years.
We all know how fast this is moving. We all know that the future is not defined.
So you need to break this down into manageable steps that will allow you to adapt, based on your changing future solution changes.
Here is how Elon Musk did it for Tesla
- Build sports car
- Use that money to build an affordable car
- Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
- Don’t tell anyone.
And how Vinny Lingham is doing it for Civic using the blockchain.
(Read more on Vinny’s recursive strategyhttps://firstround.com/review/the-recursive-product-strategy-that-musk-used-to-build-an-empire/)
- Create an easy-to-use, free identity management service for consumers
- Invest in building an identity network to eliminate fraud and identity theft
- Validate the use of mobile devices as a standard for remote mobile identification
- Improve the democratic process by giving everyone — anywhere — the ability to exercise their democratic rights
- Create a more engaged and informed civil society that makes better decisions for mankind and the planet
Adapting With The End In Mind
Each started with the end problem in mind, knowing three things:
- New Technology and a new way of solving issues create massive opportunities.
- The adoption of the end solution won’t happen today. It will take time to get there.
- Technology will evolve, and the plan needs to change with technology.
Two Things To Focus On
So – in summary, there are two things you focus on:
- Exponential technologies and how they will impact the way we live and work in the future. How do we use them to our advantage?
- How do we, as humans, become more responsive to these changes. How do we shift the way we think about things and the way that we do things and stay relevant.
I have spoken about the exponential technologies above. I will share a post on how you need to create responsive people within your organisation.